Lovie Smith doesn't like to reveal trade secrets, but his formula for success is hardly confidential. The man isn't making Coca-Cola or a crabby patty, so his recipe has been on display: dominate with defense, win on special teams and protect the ball on offense.
Smith might throw in something about running the bus, but that always has been more platitude than axiom.
Problem is, the formula has flopped. The defense hasn't been good, dropping from the Top 10 a year ago to No. 25 through three games, albeit against the best offenses in football. The offense needs to get much better too, even if the statistics are up slightly.
The most disturbing trend has been in the return game, particularly in the way the new kickoff rule has robbed field position. It was on display in the third quarter of Sunday's loss to the Packers. Johnny Knox took the opening kickoff of the second half 27 yards to the Bears' 26. Cutler was sacked on first down and the Bears never got to the 26 again for the rest of the period. Special teams could flip field position.
"We have the best returner in the league and I feel I am a pretty good returner too,"
Knox said. "Basically teams are keeping the ball out of our hands by kicking it out of the end zone."
The Bears had just five touchbacks against them all of last season, but already have eight among seventeen kickoff opportunities this year. Most of the kickoffs the Bears do get are returned from the end zone, explaining why their average starting point after a kickoff is at their own 19.8 yard line. That's not only worse than the league average of 21.8, it's just below 12 fewer yards per kickoff than last year.
The Bears aren't the only team suffering. More than half the kickoffs in the league (51.9 percent) wind up as a touchback. That 21.8 average starting point is a full five yards fewer than last year. It tells you how prolific the Bears used to be in that area that they are suffering at a rate of nearly seven yards more than the rest of the NFL.
The Bears have benefited from the rule, too. Kicker Robbie Gould has produced touchbacks on 11 of his 14 kickoffs, a 78.6 percentage that is better than any kicker in the league other than the Broncos Matt Prater, who is 13 of 13 playing two of three games in the thin air of Denver. Gould is a young guy whose leg is getting stronger as he ages. Last year he had a career-high 16 touchbacks and a career-high 21.1 percentage.
Gaining field position is nice, but it's not as important as producing it. Add up the numbers and the Bears have lost 60 yards per game from last year. If the return game can't produce field position, it must come from the offense. Good luck with that.
The Bears went three-and-out on their first three drives of the third quarter Sunday, with the Packers mixing in a field goal followed by a touchback to keep the Bears buried. The last possession of that quarter followed a punt that was downed at the 2 with 4 minutes,15 seconds left. It marked the first time the Bears attempted to run a fake punt catch against the Packers.
The Bears pulled off the fake with just more than a minute to play, but an apparent Knox touchdown was nullified when Corey Graham was flagged for holding. Not only was that the second time the Bears attempted to pull off the play Sunday, it was the third time they tried it in two years.
The same trick failed last year for similar issues as the first try against the Packers —the ball went in the wrong direction.
The Packers showed a tendency, both on film and previously against the Bears, to punt to their left (the Bears' right). The man who usually downs the football for the Packers is gunner Jarrett Bush, the same guy Graham was whistled for holding. Graham, by the way, said he briefly grabbed Bush by the shoulder and pushed him, a common tactic on any return.
The good news is an innovative coordinator in Dave Toub capable of drawing up that play. Also, the weather will change, the ball will freeze and the kickoff game will return. Here's hoping the Bears can find a formula that works until then.
